Vanderbilt CPM

(Coarctation Prediction Model)

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Estimate the risk of developing a coarctation of the aorta in neonates with a PDA.

Based on Soslow et al., A Clinical Prediction Model to Estimate the Risk for Coarctation of the Aorta in the Presence of a Patent Ductus Arteriosus J Am Soc Echocardiog. 2013


Use the same measurement unit for all measures.


Probability: --- 

Ratio Value
CA to DT :
DT to CA_SC :
Isthmus to DAO :


Perform measurements as per the illustration:

aortic arch measurement locations

[image courtesy of J. Soslow]

The model relies on calculated ratios of these various measurements. It does not matter if you use mm, cm, or furlongs- just be consistent.


Low Risk: "In a study of 154 neonates, 77 had a CoA probability of <15% and none of those patient developed CoA of the aorta."

Moderate Risk: "In a study of 154 neonates, 23 had a CoA probability of 15-60%, 4 of which had CoA."

High Risk: "In a study of 154 neonates, 56 had a CoA probability >60% and 54 of those had CoA (96%)."

Disclaimer: Not intended as clinical or surgical referral advice. Read full disclaimer here.